What would Israel do without Sharon?

At the height of his popularity, just two months after he established a new, stunningly successful, centrist political party, and just two months before he was expected to easily win re-election as Israel's 11th Prime Minister, Ariel Sharon's political career suddenly ended. Even if Sharon makes a full recovery from the severe stroke and cerebral hemorrhage he suffered, it is highly unlikely that he will be able to act as prime minister again.

The question of the hour is "What will Israel do without Sharon at the helm?"

Sharon's dream, which he only vaguely communicated, was to establish Israel's permanent borders. In November 2005, Sharon formed his own political party, called Kadima. He formed this new centrist party because he had attained enough popularity and trust from Israelis to enable him to do so and because his views regarding peace with the Palestinians - as illustrated by his withdrawal of Israeli forces and civilians from Gaza - had evolved too far from that of the Likud party.

Over a third of Israel's electorate, according to recent polls, were planning to vote for Kadima in the March 2006 elections. The latest survey, conducted by "Dialogue" on January 2 and published on January 4, showed Kadima winning 42 of the 120 seats in the Knesset. Labour followed with 19 seats, and Likud trailed with just 14 seats.

Without Sharon, will Kadima be able to hold onto the support of Israel's electorate? Without Sharon, will Kadima be able to keep Sharon's vision of Israel alive?

According to Daniel Pipes of the National Post, "Without Sharon, Kadima's constituent elements will drift back to their old homes in Labour, Likud, and elsewhere."

According to Israeli historian Michael B. Oren, "Many Israelis followed Sharon away from Likud into Kadima because they believed he represented the best guarantee for Israel's security in the near future. In his absence, they are likely to fall back on the next likeliest guarantee, Bibi Netanyahu."

When Rabin was killed, his immediate successor, Shimon Peres, carried Rabin's vision forward for a short period of time. However, terrorist attacks became more frequent and Israelis began to fear that the concessions made under the leadership of Rabin and Peres were not effective in bringing peace. Consequently, Peres was defeated in the next election by Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu. And Rabin's vision was no longer the country's guiding light.

Assuming history repeats itself, the likelihood of Sharon's vision continuing to influence Israel's progress depends on the success of his successors, under the Kadima flag, to fill the power vacuum he left behind.

Polls taken two days after Sharon's collapse reveal something about the strength of his leadership. Despite the fact that Sharon won't be physically in the running for the country's leadership, the Israeli electorate is still supporting Sharon's vision and party. According to the polls, Kadima, under the leadership of Ehud Olmert, would win 39-40 Knesset seats, a loss of only 2-3 seats as a result of Sharon's physical demise.